Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Lexington to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLexington to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive preview and prediction
The match
El Paso Locomotive travel to Toyota Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 4 October (00:00 WAT) to face Lexington. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while El Paso Locomotive sit 3rd on 50 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lexington's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Monterey Bay 3–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
El Paso Locomotive's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with FC Tulsa 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
El Paso Locomotive arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished El Paso Locomotive 1–4 Lexington.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Lexington and 1.0 for El Paso Locomotive. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lexington 62%, draw 13%, El Paso Locomotive 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lexington to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lexington 2–1 El Paso Locomotive. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington62%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw13%fair 7.57 · @3.60
El Paso Locomotive24%fair 4.11 · @3.40
2.98Expected goals
1.94Lexington xG
1.04El Paso Locomotive xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.9 – 1.0 El Paso Locomotive expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
Our pick is Lexington to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
On our numbers Lexington have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 13% and El Paso Locomotive 24%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
Our predicted score is Lexington 2–1 El Paso Locomotive, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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