USL Championship · USA · Championship Soccer StadiumOrange County SC vs Monterey Bay prediction & analysis
Orange County SC to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Orange County SC 1.9 – 1.0 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Orange County SC are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 23% for Monterey Bay.
Orange County SC have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.5 per game. Monterey Bay have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 for Orange County SC, 1.0 for Monterey Bay). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Orange County SC have won 1, Monterey Bay have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Orange County SC to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is better than our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Orange County SC to win ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Half-time result | Orange County SC ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Orange County SC / FT Orange County SC ✗ | 37% | 2.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.16 | – |
Form
Orange County SC – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Lexington | 0–6 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Las Vegas Lights | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Sacramento Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Oakland Roots | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs FC Tulsa | 1–5 | L |
Monterey Bay – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Lexington | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Charleston Battery | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Phoenix Rising | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Sacramento Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ Rhode Island | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Oakland Roots | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 2026 | Monterey Bay v Orange County SC | 1–2 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Miami FC2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Orange County SC to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Monterey Bay 23%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.