New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Sacramento Republic to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.86
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees New Mexico United take on Sacramento Republic on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Sacramento Republic sit 2nd on 51 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Colorado Springs 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sacramento Republic's last 5: DWDDD Most recently they drew with San Antonio 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 June 2026, finished Sacramento Republic 0–1 New Mexico United.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for New Mexico United and 1.6 for Sacramento Republic. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 20%, draw 17%, Sacramento Republic 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sacramento Republic to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New Mexico United 0–1 Sacramento Republic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United20%fair 4.95 · @3.30
Draw17%fair 5.84 · @3.30
Sacramento Republic63%fair 1.60 · @1.95
2.38Expected goals
0.74New Mexico United xG
1.64Sacramento Republic xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–212%
1–111%
0–09%
1–29%
0–37%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 0.7 – 1.6 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Sacramento Republic to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Sacramento Republic 63%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 0–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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