USL Championship · USA · Cardinale StadiumMonterey Bay vs Lexington prediction & analysis
Lexington to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Monterey Bay 0.9 – 1.9 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lexington travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 21% for Monterey Bay.
Monterey Bay have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Lexington have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Lexington come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (0.9 for Monterey Bay, 1.9 for Lexington). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (11%), 0–2 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Monterey Bay have won 0, Lexington have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Lexington to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lexington to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.29 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Half-time result | Lexington ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lexington / FT Lexington ✗ | 38% | 2.62 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 8.82 | – |
Form
Monterey Bay – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Charleston Battery | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Phoenix Rising | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Sacramento Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ Rhode Island | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Oakland Roots | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs New Mexico United | 2–5 | L |
Lexington – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Orange County SC | 6–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Oakland Roots | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Sporting JAX | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Colorado Springs | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | @ New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Las Vegas Lights | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 2026 | Lexington v Monterey Bay | 3–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | Lexington v Monterey Bay | 3–1 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Pittsburgh Riverhounds0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monterey Bay vs Lexington?
Our pick is Lexington to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Monterey Bay vs Lexington?
On our numbers Monterey Bay have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Lexington 64%.
How many goals will there be in Monterey Bay vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Monterey Bay vs Lexington?
Monterey Bay vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Cardinale Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.