Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Las Vegas Lights to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.83 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.83Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Vegas Lights to win ✗63% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.75
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Las Vegas Lights take on New Mexico United on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 03:30 (WAT) at Cashman Field. Las Vegas Lights are 11th with 36 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Las Vegas Lights's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Charleston Battery 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
New Mexico United's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to San Antonio 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished New Mexico United 3–1 Las Vegas Lights.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Las Vegas Lights and 0.9 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Vegas Lights 63%, draw 13%, New Mexico United 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Las Vegas Lights to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Las Vegas Lights 1–0 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Vegas Lights63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
Draw13%fair 7.77 · @3.75
New Mexico United24%fair 4.21 · @3.40
2.60Expected goals
1.74Las Vegas Lights xG
0.86New Mexico United xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Las Vegas Lights 1.7 – 0.9 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Las Vegas Lights to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Las Vegas Lights have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 13% and New Mexico United 24%.
How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Las Vegas Lights 1–0 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Cashman Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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