USL Championship · USA · Hodges Stadium
Sporting JAX vs Lexington prediction & analysis
Lexington to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sporting JAX 1.2 – 2.1 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lexington shade it despite being away from home – 59% to win, against 22% for Sporting JAX.
Sporting JAX have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.7 per game. Lexington have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. Lexington come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.2 for Sporting JAX, 2.1 for Lexington). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 0–2 (8%).
Our pick is Lexington to win at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lexington to win ✗ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Half-time result | Lexington ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lexington / FT Lexington ✗ | 37% | 2.72 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.18 | – |
Form
Sporting JAX – last 6
| 30 Aug | @ Brooklyn | 1–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Birmingham Legion | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Indy Eleven | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Sacramento Republic | 0–5 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ El Paso Locomotive | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Jul | vs Brooklyn | 2–2 | D |
Lexington – last 6
| 30 Aug | vs Colorado Springs | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | @ New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Las Vegas Lights | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Sacramento Republic | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs Phoenix Rising | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | vs Monterey Bay | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting JAX and Lexington.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 |
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New Mexico United2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting JAX vs Lexington?
Our pick is Lexington to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Sporting JAX vs Lexington?
On our numbers Sporting JAX have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lexington 59%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting JAX vs Lexington?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Sporting JAX vs Lexington?
Sporting JAX vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Hodges Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.