Indy Eleven vs Louisville City prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLouisville City to win ✗49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City preview and prediction
The match
Indy Eleven host Louisville City in the USL Championship on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium. Indy Eleven are 9th with 34 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Indy Eleven's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Sporting JAX 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Louisville City's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Orange County SC 3–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Louisville City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.3 for Indy Eleven and 1.7 for Louisville City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Indy Eleven 30%, draw 20%, Louisville City 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Indy Eleven 1–1 Louisville City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Indy Eleven30%fair 3.30 · @3.10
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.55
Louisville City49%fair 2.02 · @2.00
2.95Expected goals
1.26Indy Eleven xG
1.69Louisville City xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 1.3 – 1.7 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✗
49%
2.02
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
29%
3.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.61
–
Form
Indy Eleven – last 6
WDLLLL
16 Aug
@ Sporting JAX
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Hartford Athletic
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ San Antonio
1–3
L
26 Jul
vs Loudoun United
0–1
L
19 Jul
@ Detroit City
0–2
L
16 Jul
@ Miami FC
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Louisville City – last 6
WDDLWW
16 Aug
@ Orange County SC
3–2
W
13 Aug
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs San Antonio
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–5
L
30 Jul
vs Birmingham Legion
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Trinidad and Tobago
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indy Eleven and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Louisville City 49%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 1–1 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lexington2
Las Vegas Lights0
Monterey Bay1
Colorado Springs0
El Paso Locomotive1
San Antonio0
Oakland Roots1
Orange County SC1
FC Tulsa5