USL Championship · USA · Centreville Bank Stadium
Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Rhode Island 2.1 – 0.8 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Rhode Island are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 11% for Monterey Bay.
Rhode Island have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.7 per game. Monterey Bay have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded. Rhode Island come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.1 for Rhode Island, 0.8 for Monterey Bay). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.28.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Rhode Island to win ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Rhode Island or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.74 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Rhode Island ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Rhode Island / FT Rhode Island ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.02 | – |
Form
Rhode Island – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs Colorado Springs | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Aug | @ Birmingham Legion | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Jul | vs Hartford Athletic | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Jul | vs Brooklyn | 1–1 | D |
Monterey Bay – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Oakland Roots | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs New Mexico United | 2–5 | L |
| 6 Aug | @ El Paso Locomotive | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Lexington | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Jul | vs Orange County SC | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Jul | @ Phoenix Rising | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rhode Island and Monterey Bay.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 |
More USL Championship predictions
League hub
Lexington2
Las Vegas Lights0
Colorado Springs0
El Paso Locomotive1
San Antonio0
Oakland Roots1
Orange County SC1
FC Tulsa5Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Rhode Island have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 11%.
How many goals will there be in Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Centreville Bank Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.