USL Championship · USA · Protective StadiumBirmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX prediction & analysis
Birmingham Legion to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Birmingham Legion 2.3 – 0.9 Sporting JAX expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Birmingham Legion are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 12% for Sporting JAX.
Birmingham Legion have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Sporting JAX have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.3 for Birmingham Legion, 0.9 for Sporting JAX). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Birmingham Legion to win at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is better than our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Birmingham Legion to win ✗ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.55 ▲ |
| Double chance | Birmingham Legion or draw ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | – |
| Half-time result | Birmingham Legion ahead at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Birmingham Legion / FT Birmingham Legion ✗ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.87 | – |
Form
Birmingham Legion – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Colorado Springs | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Aug | vs Rhode Island | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Jul | @ Louisville City | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Jul | vs FC Tulsa | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Jul | @ Miami FC | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Jul | vs Detroit City | 1–2 | L |
Sporting JAX – last 6
| 16 Aug | vs Indy Eleven | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Sacramento Republic | 0–5 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ El Paso Locomotive | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Jul | vs Brooklyn | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Jul | vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Jul | @ Austin | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham Legion and Sporting JAX.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 |
More USL Championship predictions
League hub
Lexington2
Las Vegas Lights0
Monterey Bay1
Colorado Springs0
El Paso Locomotive1
San Antonio0
Oakland Roots1
Orange County SC1
FC Tulsa5Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX?
Our pick is Birmingham Legion to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX?
On our numbers Birmingham Legion have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sporting JAX 12%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX?
Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Protective Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.