Sacramento Republic vs Lexington prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Sacramento Republic or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓59% · @1.95
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington preview and prediction
The match
Lexington travel to Heart Health Park in the USL Championship on Sunday 16 August (04:00 WAT) to face Sacramento Republic. Sacramento Republic are 2nd with 51 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Lexington sit 4th on 48 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sacramento Republic's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Lexington's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Phoenix Rising 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Lexington 0–0 Sacramento Republic.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Sacramento Republic and 0.8 for Lexington. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%.
Safer route: Sacramento Republic or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Sacramento Republic to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sacramento Republic or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Lexington. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sacramento Republic59%fair 1.71 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.25
Lexington16%fair 6.24 · @3.50
2.55Expected goals
1.74Sacramento Republic xG
0.81Lexington xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.7 – 0.8 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
Our pick is Sacramento Republic or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lexington 16%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Detroit City0
Loudoun United0
Hartford Athletic2
Miami FC1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds3
Charleston Battery1
Sporting JAX0
Indy Eleven1
Tampa Bay Rowdies2
Rhode Island0
Birmingham Legion2