Value bet: FC Tulsa to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 9.62
New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa preview and prediction
The match
New Mexico United host FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 02:30 (WAT) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while FC Tulsa sit 7th on 43 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Monterey Bay 5–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
FC Tulsa's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Detroit City 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for New Mexico United and 1.2 for FC Tulsa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 41%, draw 23%, FC Tulsa 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.65.
Value angle: FC Tulsa to win at 3.00 – 37% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: New Mexico United 1–1 FC Tulsa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United41%fair 2.46 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.40
FC Tulsa37%fair 2.73 · @3.00
2.53Expected goals
1.31New Mexico United xG
1.22FC Tulsa xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.3 – 1.2 FC Tulsa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✓
41%
2.46
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
9.62
–
Form
New Mexico United – last 6
WWWWWD
9 Aug
@ Monterey Bay
5–2
W
2 Aug
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
16 Jul
@ Lexington
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2 Jul
vs Atlante FC
3–3
D
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FC Tulsa – last 6
LWWDWL
9 Aug
vs Detroit City
0–1
L
6 Aug
vs Sacramento Republic
1–0
W
30 Jul
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–0
W
26 Jul
vs Lexington
0–0
D
19 Jul
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Birmingham Legion
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Mexico United and FC Tulsa.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC Tulsa 37%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 1–1 FC Tulsa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa?
New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Detroit City0
Loudoun United0
Hartford Athletic2
Miami FC1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds3
Charleston Battery1
Sporting JAX0
Indy Eleven1
Tampa Bay Rowdies2
Rhode Island0
Birmingham Legion2