Value bet: Louisville City to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLouisville City to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chanceLouisville City or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.43
Orange County SC vs Louisville City preview and prediction
The match
Orange County SC host Louisville City in the USL Championship on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Championship Soccer Stadium. Orange County SC are 9th with 39 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Orange County SC's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Louisville City's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.8 for Orange County SC and 2.1 for Louisville City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Orange County SC 13%, draw 21%, Louisville City 66%.
Safer route: Louisville City or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Louisville City to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Orange County SC 0–2 Louisville City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orange County SC13%fair 7.70 · @4.00
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.60
Louisville City66%fair 1.52 · @1.75
2.90Expected goals
0.82Orange County SC xG
2.08Louisville City xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 0.8 – 2.1 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✓
66%
1.52
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Louisville City or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.36
Half-time result
Louisville City ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.43
–
Form
Orange County SC – last 6
LWWLDD
9 Aug
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–3
L
2 Aug
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Monterey Bay
2–1
W
12 Jul
vs Colorado Springs
0–3
L
9 Jul
@ Hartford Athletic
2–2
D
5 Jul
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Louisville City – last 6
DDLWWL
13 Aug
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs San Antonio
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–5
L
30 Jul
vs Birmingham Legion
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Trinidad and Tobago
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Louisville City 66%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 0–2 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Orange County SC vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Colorado Springs3
San Antonio0
El Paso Locomotive3
New Mexico United1
FC Tulsa0