Value bet: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.34
Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Orange County SC take on Tampa Bay Rowdies on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Championship Soccer Stadium. Orange County SC are 9th with 39 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points (top of the table). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Orange County SC's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat El Paso Locomotive 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Louisville City 5–4 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Orange County SC and 2.0 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Orange County SC 14%, draw 20%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 66%.
Safer route: Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Orange County SC 0–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orange County SC14%fair 7.03 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.60
Tampa Bay Rowdies66%fair 1.52 · @1.75
2.84Expected goals
0.81Orange County SC xG
2.02Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 0.8 – 2.0 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✓
66%
1.52
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Half-time result
Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tampa Bay Rowdies / FT Tampa Bay Rowdies✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.34
–
Form
Orange County SC – last 6
WWLDDW
2 Aug
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Monterey Bay
2–1
W
12 Jul
vs Colorado Springs
0–3
L
9 Jul
@ Hartford Athletic
2–2
D
5 Jul
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
25 Jun
@ Miami FC
4–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WWDWLW
2 Aug
vs Louisville City
5–4
W
26 Jul
@ Miami FC
3–2
W
19 Jul
@ Loudoun United
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Naples
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Lexington
1–4
L
21 Jun
@ Brooklyn
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 66%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 0–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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