Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights preview and prediction
The match
Miami FC host Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Riccardo Silva Stadium. Miami FC are 8th with 36 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Las Vegas Lights sit 11th on 36 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Miami FC's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Detroit City 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Las Vegas Lights's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Oakland Roots 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Las Vegas Lights arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Miami FC and 1.5 for Las Vegas Lights. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Miami FC 35%, draw 22%, Las Vegas Lights 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Miami FC 1–1 Las Vegas Lights. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Miami FC35%fair 2.84 · @2.60
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.50
Las Vegas Lights42%fair 2.36 · @2.33
2.89Expected goals
1.37Miami FC xG
1.53Las Vegas Lights xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Miami FC 1.4 – 1.5 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Vegas Lights to win✓
42%
2.36
2.33
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Vegas Lights / FT Las Vegas Lights✓
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.34
–
Form
Miami FC – last 6
DLLWWD
2 Aug
vs Detroit City
2–2
D
26 Jul
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
2–3
L
23 Jul
@ Colorado Springs
0–2
L
16 Jul
vs Indy Eleven
2–0
W
12 Jul
@ Sarasota Paradise
5–0
W
6 Jul
vs Birmingham Legion
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
DDWWWL
6 Aug
vs Oakland Roots
0–0
D
2 Aug
vs Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
26 Jul
@ Detroit City
1–0
W
19 Jul
@ San Antonio
2–1
W
12 Jul
@ Monterey Bay
3–2
W
5 Jul
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Miami FC and Las Vegas Lights.
What is the prediction for Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
On our numbers Miami FC have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Las Vegas Lights 42%.
How many goals will there be in Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our predicted score is Miami FC 1–1 Las Vegas Lights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Riccardo Silva Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lexington1
Phoenix Rising0
Sacramento Republic0
Colorado Springs0
San Antonio1
FC Tulsa0
El Paso Locomotive1
Oakland Roots0
Monterey Bay2
New Mexico United5