Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Lexington to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLexington to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceLexington or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.18
Lexington vs Phoenix Rising preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Lexington take on Phoenix Rising on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Phoenix Rising sit 8th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Lexington's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Monterey Bay 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Phoenix Rising's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Las Vegas Lights 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Lexington arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Lexington and 0.9 for Phoenix Rising. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Lexington to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lexington or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lexington 1–0 Phoenix Rising. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington60%fair 1.67 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.65
Phoenix Rising17%fair 5.72 · @3.65
2.88Expected goals
1.93Lexington xG
0.94Phoenix Rising xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.9 – 0.9 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✓
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Lexington or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Half-time result
Lexington ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.18
–
Form
Lexington – last 6
WDWLLW
2 Aug
vs Monterey Bay
3–2
W
26 Jul
@ FC Tulsa
0–0
D
23 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–0
W
16 Jul
vs New Mexico United
1–4
L
12 Jul
@ Louisville City
2–4
L
4 Jul
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Phoenix Rising – last 6
DDWLLL
2 Aug
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–1
D
26 Jul
vs Hartford Athletic
0–0
D
19 Jul
vs Monterey Bay
3–2
W
12 Jul
@ Alta
1–2
L
5 Jul
@ Colorado Springs
1–3
L
21 Jun
vs Oakland Roots
3–4
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Phoenix Rising.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Lexington or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Lexington have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Phoenix Rising 17%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–0 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Phoenix Rising?
Lexington vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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