Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
2
Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Monterey Bay take on New Mexico United on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Cardinale Stadium. Monterey Bay are 12th with 24 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). A gap of 28 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Monterey Bay's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to El Paso Locomotive 0–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
New Mexico United's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Colorado Springs 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Monterey Bay and 1.5 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monterey Bay 35%, draw 22%, New Mexico United 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.44.
Value angle: New Mexico United to win at 2.80 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Monterey Bay 1–1 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterey Bay35%fair 2.84 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.50
New Mexico United42%fair 2.36 · @2.80
2.81Expected goals
1.33Monterey Bay xG
1.48New Mexico United xG
62%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Monterey Bay 1.3 – 1.5 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✓
42%
2.36
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.55
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Form
Monterey Bay – last 6
LLLLLD
6 Aug
@ El Paso Locomotive
0–1
L
2 Aug
@ Lexington
2–3
L
26 Jul
vs Orange County SC
1–2
L
19 Jul
@ Phoenix Rising
2–3
L
12 Jul
vs Las Vegas Lights
2–3
L
5 Jul
@ San Antonio
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
WWWWDW
2 Aug
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
16 Jul
@ Lexington
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2 Jul
vs Atlante FC
3–3
D
21 Jun
@ Sacramento Republic
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterey Bay and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Monterey Bay have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New Mexico United 42%.
How many goals will there be in Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Monterey Bay 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Cardinale Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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