Value bet: Pittsburgh Riverhounds to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPittsburgh Riverhounds to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.42
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Pittsburgh Riverhounds take on Phoenix Rising on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Highmark Stadium. Pittsburgh Riverhounds are 5th with 45 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Phoenix Rising sit 8th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Pittsburgh Riverhounds's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Greenville Triumph 3–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Phoenix Rising's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Colorado Springs 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 0.9 for Phoenix Rising. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Pittsburgh Riverhounds to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 Phoenix Rising. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pittsburgh Riverhounds59%fair 1.70 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.88 · @3.25
Phoenix Rising21%fair 4.85 · @3.90
2.71Expected goals
1.78Pittsburgh Riverhounds xG
0.93Phoenix Rising xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.8 – 0.9 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pittsburgh Riverhounds to win✗
59%
1.70
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Half-time result
Pittsburgh Riverhounds ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pittsburgh Riverhounds / FT Pittsburgh Riverhounds✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.42
–
Form
Pittsburgh Riverhounds – last 6
WWLDWW
26 Apr
vs Greenville Triumph
3–0
W
19 Apr
vs Detroit City
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ New York Red Bulls
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Indy Eleven
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Virginia Dream
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs Sporting JAX
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Phoenix Rising – last 6
LWLWLD
26 Apr
vs Colorado Springs
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Miami FC
3–0
W
16 Apr
@ San Jose Earthquakes
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs New Mexico United
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Sacramento Republic
0–2
L
2 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Phoenix Rising.
What is the prediction for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Pittsburgh Riverhounds have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Phoenix Rising 21%.
How many goals will there be in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Highmark Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
San Antonio3
Colorado Springs3
Sacramento Republic3
Orange County SC2
Las Vegas Lights2
Lexington1