Value bet: Las Vegas Lights to win @ 2.65 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Vegas Lights to win ✓40% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.73
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington preview and prediction
The match
Lexington travel to Cashman Field in the USL Championship on Sunday 3 May (03:30 WAT) to face Las Vegas Lights. Las Vegas Lights are 11th with 36 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Lexington sit 4th on 48 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Las Vegas Lights's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Boise 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Lexington's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Forward Madison 4–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.3 for Lexington. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Vegas Lights 40%, draw 24%, Lexington 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Las Vegas Lights to win at 2.65 – 40% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Lexington. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Vegas Lights40%fair 2.47 · @2.65
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Lexington36%fair 2.81 · @2.40
2.72Expected goals
1.41Las Vegas Lights xG
1.31Lexington xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Las Vegas Lights 1.4 – 1.3 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Vegas Lights to win✓
40%
2.47
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Vegas Lights / FT Las Vegas Lights✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.73
–
Form
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
DLDLWL
26 Apr
vs Boise
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oakland Roots
2–4
L
12 Apr
vs Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–3
L
29 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lexington – last 6
WDLLLW
26 Apr
vs Forward Madison
4–2
W
19 Apr
@ Orange County SC
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Rhode Island
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–2
L
26 Mar
vs Brooklyn
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Vegas Lights and Lexington.
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
On our numbers Las Vegas Lights have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lexington 36%.
How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Cashman Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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