Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDundalk to win ✗59% · @1.65
Double chanceDundalk or draw ✓80% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.04
Waterford vs Dundalk preview and prediction
The match
Waterford host Dundalk in the Premier Division on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Regional Sports Centre. Waterford are 7th with 43 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Dundalk sit 6th on 45 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Waterford's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Shamrock Rovers 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Dundalk's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Shelbourne 1–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Dundalk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.0 for Waterford and 2.0 for Dundalk. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Waterford 1–1 Dundalk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Waterford20%fair 5.11 · @4.55
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @4.10
Dundalk59%fair 1.68 · @1.65
2.98Expected goals
1.02Waterford xG
1.95Dundalk xG
59%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
0–110%
1–210%
0–210%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Waterford 1.0 – 2.0 Dundalk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dundalk to win✗
59%
1.68
1.65
Double chance
Dundalk or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.55
Half-time result
Dundalk ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dundalk / FT Dundalk✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.04
–
Form
Waterford – last 6
LDDDLL
1 May
@ Shamrock Rovers
0–1
L
24 Apr
vs Galway United
1–1
D
6 Apr
@ Bohemians
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs St Patrick's Athl.
0–2
L
16 Mar
@ Galway United
3–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Dundalk – last 6
LWDWWD
1 May
vs Shelbourne
1–2
L
17 Apr
vs Galway United
2–1
W
10 Apr
vs Derry City
2–2
D
6 Apr
vs St Patrick's Athl.
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Shelbourne
3–2
W
20 Mar
@ Bohemians
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Waterford and Dundalk.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Waterford vs Dundalk?
On our numbers Waterford have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Dundalk 59%.
How many goals will there be in Waterford vs Dundalk?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our predicted score is Waterford 1–1 Dundalk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford vs Dundalk (Premier Division) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Regional Sports Centre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
