St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
St Patrick's Athl. host Derry City in the Premier Division on Monday 16 March, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at Richmond Park. St Patrick's Athl. are 3rd with 60 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Derry City sit 5th on 48 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
St Patrick's Athl.'s last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Drogheda United 4–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Derry City's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Shelbourne 1–2 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.
St Patrick's Athl. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.5 for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.1 for Derry City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: St Patrick's Athl. 47%, draw 22%, Derry City 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
St Patrick's Athl.47%fair 2.12 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Derry City30%fair 3.29 · @3.35
2.64Expected goals
1.50St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.14Derry City xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: St Patrick's Athl. 1.5 – 1.1 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
St Patrick's Athl. to win✗
47%
2.12
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT St Patrick's Athl. / FT St Patrick's Athl.✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.33
–
Form
St Patrick's Athl. – last 5
WWWWL
13 Mar
vs Drogheda United
4–1
W
6 Mar
@ Shelbourne
3–2
W
2 Mar
vs Galway United
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Dundalk
4–0
W
20 Feb
@ Shamrock Rovers
0–2
L
2.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Derry City – last 5
LLWLD
13 Mar
vs Shelbourne
1–2
L
6 Mar
@ Shamrock Rovers
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Waterford
4–2
W
20 Feb
vs Bohemians
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Dundalk
2–2
D
1.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City.
What is the prediction for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
On our numbers St Patrick's Athl. have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derry City 30%.
How many goals will there be in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Richmond Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
