Toluca travel to Estadio Azteca in the Liga MX on Sunday 19 April (04:10 WAT) to face Club America. Club America are 2nd with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Club America's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Nashville SC 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Toluca's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Club America and 1.4 for Toluca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Club America 36%, draw 23%, Toluca 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Club America 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Club America36%fair 2.78 · @2.66
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Toluca41%fair 2.43 · @2.50
2.65Expected goals
1.27Club America xG
1.38Toluca xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Club America 1.3 – 1.4 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
41%
2.43
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Form
Club America – last 6
LDDDLD
15 Apr
vs Nashville SC
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Cruz Azul
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Nashville SC
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Santos Laguna
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Philadelphia Union
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
WDWLDW
16 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
3–0
W
13 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club America and Toluca.
What is the prediction for Club America vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Club America vs Toluca?
On our numbers Club America have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toluca 41%.
How many goals will there be in Club America vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club America vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Club America 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Club America vs Toluca?
Club America vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
