Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Pachuca to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonterrey to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Monterrey vs Pachuca preview and prediction
The match
Pachuca travel to Estadio BBVA in the Liga MX on Sunday 19 April (02:05 WAT) to face Monterrey. Monterrey are 10th with 21 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Pachuca sit 8th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Monterrey's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Atlas 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Pachuca's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Santos Laguna 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Pachuca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Monterrey and 1.5 for Pachuca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Pachuca to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Monterrey 1–1 Pachuca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterrey40%fair 2.53 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.75
Pachuca39%fair 2.56 · @3.10
2.92Expected goals
1.47Monterrey xG
1.45Pachuca xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.5 – 1.5 Pachuca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey to win✗
40%
2.53
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey / FT Monterrey✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Form
Monterrey – last 6
DLLDDL
12 Apr
@ Atlas
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–3
L
18 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
11 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pachuca – last 6
WWDDWW
12 Apr
vs Santos Laguna
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Cruz Azul
2–1
W
23 Mar
vs Toluca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Puebla
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Pachuca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monterrey vs Pachuca?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pachuca 39%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Pachuca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Pachuca?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Pachuca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Pachuca?
Monterrey vs Pachuca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon3