Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTigres UANL to win ✗50% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Necaxa vs Tigres UANL preview and prediction
The match
Necaxa host Tigres UANL in the Liga MX on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa are 17th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Necaxa's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Club Queretaro 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Tigres UANL's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Seattle Sounders 1–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Necaxa and 1.7 for Tigres UANL. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Necaxa to win at 3.60 – 30% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Necaxa 1–1 Tigres UANL. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa30%fair 3.37 · @3.60
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.50
Tigres UANL50%fair 2.01 · @1.97
2.86Expected goals
1.20Necaxa xG
1.65Tigres UANL xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–19%
1–29%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Necaxa 1.2 – 1.7 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tigres UANL to win✗
50%
2.01
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tigres UANL / FT Tigres UANL✗
29%
3.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.53
–
Form
Necaxa – last 6
LWWDLL
12 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
1–3
L
4 Apr
vs Mazatlán
2–1
W
21 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
3–0
W
14 Mar
@ Puebla
0–0
D
7 Mar
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tigres UANL – last 6
LWWLLW
16 Apr
@ Seattle Sounders
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Guadalajara Chivas
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Seattle Sounders
2–0
W
4 Apr
@ Club Tijuana
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ FC Juarez
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs FC Cincinnati
5–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Tigres UANL.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tigres UANL 50%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 1–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
Necaxa vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon3