Value bet: Monterrey to win @ 2.44 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonterrey to win ✗45% · @2.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Atlas vs Monterrey preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Atlas take on Monterrey on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Atlas are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Monterrey sit 10th on 21 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Atlas's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Leon 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Monterrey's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Atletico San Luis 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Atlas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for Atlas and 1.6 for Monterrey. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlas 34%, draw 21%, Monterrey 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Monterrey to win at 2.44 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Atlas 1–1 Monterrey. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlas34%fair 2.93 · @2.72
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.45
Monterrey45%fair 2.22 · @2.44
2.92Expected goals
1.34Atlas xG
1.58Monterrey xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Atlas 1.3 – 1.6 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey to win✗
45%
2.22
2.44 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey / FT Monterrey✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.08
–
Form
Atlas – last 6
LDDLWL
5 Apr
@ Leon
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Toluca
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ FC Juarez
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monterrey – last 6
LLDDLL
5 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–3
L
18 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
11 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Tigres UANL
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlas and Monterrey.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Atlas vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Atlas have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monterrey 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Monterrey?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Atlas 1–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Monterrey?
Atlas vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán