Value bet: Tigres UANL to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓44% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Cruz Azul take on Tigres UANL on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estadio Azteca. Cruz Azul are 1st with 32 points from 16 games (top of the table), while Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Cruz Azul and 1.3 for Tigres UANL. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Tigres UANL to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Cruz Azul 1–1 Tigres UANL. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruz Azul44%fair 2.30 · @2.26
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.05
Tigres UANL33%fair 3.03 · @3.30
2.81Expected goals
1.52Cruz Azul xG
1.29Tigres UANL xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cruz Azul 1.5 – 1.3 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
44%
2.30
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.94
–
Form
Cruz Azul – last 1
W
13 Feb
vs Vancouver FC
5–0
W
5.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tigres UANL
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruz Azul and Tigres UANL.
What is the prediction for Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Cruz Azul have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tigres UANL 33%.
How many goals will there be in Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Cruz Azul 1–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?
Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
