Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonterrey to win ✓63% · @1.54
Double chanceMonterrey or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.45
Monterrey vs Leon preview and prediction
The match
Leon travel to Estadio BBVA in the Liga MX on Sunday 15 February (02:00 WAT) to face Monterrey. Monterrey are 10th with 21 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Leon sit 7th on 23 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Monterrey and 0.9 for Leon. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monterrey 63%, draw 22%, Leon 15%.
Safer route: Monterrey or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Monterrey 2–0 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterrey63%fair 1.59 · @1.54
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.20
Leon15%fair 6.65 · @5.60
3.02Expected goals
2.08Monterrey xG
0.94Leon xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Monterrey 2.1 – 0.9 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey to win✓
63%
1.59
1.54
Double chance
Monterrey or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Half-time result
Monterrey ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey / FT Monterrey✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.45
–
Form
Monterrey
No recent results on record.
Leon
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monterrey vs Leon?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leon 15%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Leon?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 2–0 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Leon?
Monterrey vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
