Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✗60% · @1.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.42
Santos vs Coritiba preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Santos take on Coritiba on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Neo Química Arena. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Coritiba sit 12th on 42 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Santos's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Coritiba 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Coritiba's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Santos 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 May 2026, finished Coritiba 0–2 Santos. Across their last 2 meetings Santos have won 1, Coritiba 0, with 1 draw and 1.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Santos and 0.8 for Coritiba. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 60%, draw 20%, Coritiba 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 56% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Santos 1–0 Coritiba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos60%fair 1.67 · @1.72
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @3.35
Coritiba20%fair 4.91 · @5.30
2.53Expected goals
1.69Santos xG
0.84Coritiba xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Santos 1.7 – 0.8 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Santos vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Santos have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Coritiba 20%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Coritiba?
Santos vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
