Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense host Flamengo in the Serie A on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Flamengo sit 1st on 76 points (top of the table). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Flamengo's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Vitoria 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Flamengo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.4 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense32%fair 3.10 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
Flamengo46%fair 2.18 · @2.22
2.53Expected goals
1.12Atletico Paranaense xG
1.41Flamengo xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.1 – 1.4 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✗
46%
2.18
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.90
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LDDLWW
11 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–1
L
3 May
vs Gremio
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
LWDWWW
15 May
@ Vitoria
0–2
L
10 May
@ Gremio
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Bahia
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Flamengo 46%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
