Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗57% · @1.81
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.72
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
Cruzeiro travel to Allianz Parque in the Serie A on Sunday 17 May (01:00 WAT) to face Palmeiras. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Jacuipense 4–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Cruzeiro's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Goias 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Palmeiras and 0.9 for Cruzeiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%.
Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Palmeiras 1–0 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras57%fair 1.74 · @1.81
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.45
Cruzeiro17%fair 5.73 · @4.35
2.60Expected goals
1.74Palmeiras xG
0.86Cruzeiro xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.7 – 0.9 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✗
57%
1.74
1.81
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.72
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
WWDWWD
14 May
@ Jacuipense
4–1
W
5 May
@ Sporting Cristal
2–0
W
30 Apr
@ Cerro Porteno
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Jacuipense
3–0
W
16 Apr
vs Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 6
WWDLWD
13 May
vs Goias
1–0
W
10 May
@ Bahia
2–1
W
7 May
@ U. Catolica
0–0
D
3 May
vs Atletico-MG
1–3
L
29 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro.
Our pick is Palmeiras or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cruzeiro 17%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
