Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 1.81 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✗62% · @1.81
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.21
Bahia vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Bahia host Gremio in the Serie A on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Remo 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Gremio's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Confiança 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gremio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Bahia and 0.8 for Gremio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 62%, draw 21%, Gremio 16%.
Safer route: Bahia or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Bahia to win at 1.81 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bahia or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Bahia 1–0 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia62%fair 1.60 · @1.81
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.55
Gremio16%fair 6.06 · @4.20
2.56Expected goals
1.79Bahia xG
0.77Gremio xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.8 – 0.8 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
62%
1.60
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.21
–
Form
Bahia – last 6
LLLLLW
14 May
@ Remo
1–2
L
10 May
vs Cruzeiro
1–2
L
22 Apr
vs Remo
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
WLWDDW
14 May
@ Confiança
3–0
W
10 May
vs Flamengo
0–1
L
5 May
@ Deportivo Riestra
3–0
W
3 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–0
D
30 Apr
@ Palestino
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Gremio.
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bahia vs Gremio?
On our numbers Bahia have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gremio 16%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Gremio?
Bahia vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
