Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFluminense to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chanceFluminense or draw ✓84% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Fluminense vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Fluminense take on Corinthians on Thursday 2 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estádio do Maracanã. Fluminense are 4th with 57 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Corinthians sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Fluminense's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 2–3 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Corinthians's last 5: DDDLL Most recently they drew with Flamengo 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Fluminense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Fluminense and 0.7 for Corinthians. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Fluminense 1–0 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fluminense61%fair 1.65 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.35
Corinthians16%fair 6.34 · @5.00
2.30Expected goals
1.62Fluminense xG
0.68Corinthians xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fluminense 1.6 – 0.7 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fluminense to win✓
61%
1.65
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Fluminense or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense✓
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.16
–
Form
Fluminense – last 6
LWWLWW
19 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ remo
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Bangu
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
DDDLLD
23 Mar
vs Flamengo
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Santos
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Novorizontino
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fluminense and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fluminense vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Fluminense have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Corinthians 16%.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Fluminense 1–0 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Fluminense vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
