Value bet: Chapecoense-sc to win @ 2.92 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓39% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.82
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
Chapecoense-sc host Atletico-MG in the Serie A on Thursday 2 April, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Arena Condá. Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 21 points from 33 games (in the bottom three), while Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points (in the top half). A gap of 29 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat São Bernardo 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico-MG's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Sao Paulo 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.3 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Chapecoense-sc to win at 2.92 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapecoense-sc37%fair 2.69 · @2.92
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Atletico-MG39%fair 2.58 · @2.38
2.53Expected goals
1.25Chapecoense-sc xG
1.28Atletico-MG xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.3 – 1.3 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
39%
2.58
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✓
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.82
–
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 5
WDDLW
26 Mar
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
20 Mar
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs Gremio
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 5
WWLDW
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Gremio
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Itabirito
7–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 39%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
