Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.80
Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in the Serie A on Thursday 2 April (00:30 WAT) to face Coritiba. Coritiba are 12th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Coritiba's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Mirassol 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Fluminense 3–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Coritiba arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Coritiba and 1.3 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Coritiba 37%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Coritiba 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coritiba37%fair 2.73 · @2.54
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Vasco DA Gama39%fair 2.57 · @2.80
2.54Expected goals
1.25Coritiba xG
1.30Vasco DA Gama xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.2 – 1.3 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win✗
39%
2.57
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.80
–
Form
Coritiba – last 3
WWL
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 5
WDWLL
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
16 Mar
@ Cruzeiro
3–3
D
12 Mar
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 39%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
