Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Bahia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✓58% · @1.80
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.60
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Bahia host Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A on Thursday 2 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat RB Bragantino 2–0 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Botafogo 4–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Bahia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Bahia and 0.9 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%.
Our pre-match pick was Bahia or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Bahia 1–0 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia58%fair 1.72 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.50
Atletico Paranaense21%fair 4.86 · @4.35
2.55Expected goals
1.68Bahia xG
0.87Atletico Paranaense xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.7 – 0.9 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.60
–
Form
Bahia – last 5
WWDWL
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
WWLDLL
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Bahia have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Paranaense 21%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
