Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
2
Value bet: Corinthians to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✗38% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.74
Santos vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Santos take on Corinthians on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Corinthians sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Santos's last 4: DWLW Most recently they drew with Mirassol 2–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Corinthians's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Coritiba 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Santos and 1.4 for Corinthians. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Corinthians to win at 3.00 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos38%fair 2.64 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Corinthians38%fair 2.65 · @3.00
2.80Expected goals
1.40Santos xG
1.40Corinthians xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 1.4 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✗
38%
2.64
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.74
–
Form
Santos – last 4
DWLW
11 Mar
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 5
LLDWW
12 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Novorizontino
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
19 Feb
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ São Bernardo
1–0
W
0.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Corinthians.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Santos vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Santos have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Corinthians 38%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Corinthians?
Santos vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
