Palmeiras host Mirassol in the Serie A on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Allianz Parque. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Mirassol sit 14th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 1–2 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.5 for Palmeiras and 1.4 for Mirassol. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 75% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palmeiras 2–1 Mirassol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras60%fair 1.67 · @1.57
Draw19%fair 5.31 · @3.90
Mirassol21%fair 4.71 · @5.00
3.89Expected goals
2.46Palmeiras xG
1.43Mirassol xG
61%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.5 – 1.4 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win
60%
1.67
1.57
Double chance
Either team to win
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.31
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
LWWWWW
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
2–1
W
26 Feb
vs Fluminense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Capivariano
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mirassol – last 2
DL
11 Mar
vs Santos
2–2
D
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Mirassol.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Mirassol 21%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–1 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Palmeiras vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
