Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Internacional to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultInternacional to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceInternacional or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.17
Internacional vs Bahia preview and prediction
The match
Bahia travel to Estádio Beira-Rio in the Serie A on Sunday 15 March (20:00 WAT) to face Internacional. Internacional are 16th with 38 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Internacional's last 4: LDWL Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Bahia's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with Vitoria 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.4 for Internacional and 0.6 for Bahia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Internacional 61%, draw 22%, Bahia 17%.
Safer route: Internacional or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Internacional to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Internacional or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Internacional 1–0 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Internacional61%fair 1.65 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.25
Bahia17%fair 5.86 · @3.60
2.00Expected goals
1.43Internacional xG
0.57Bahia xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–014%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Internacional 1.4 – 0.6 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Internacional to win✗
61%
1.65
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Internacional or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Internacional / FT Internacional✗
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.17
–
Form
Internacional – last 4
LDWL
11 Mar
@ Atletico-MG
0–1
L
25 Feb
@ remo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Ypiranga-RS
3–0
W
13 Feb
vs Palmeiras
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bahia – last 3
DWL
12 Mar
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Internacional and Bahia.
What is the prediction for Internacional vs Bahia?
Our pick is Internacional or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Internacional vs Bahia?
On our numbers Internacional have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bahia 17%.
How many goals will there be in Internacional vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Internacional vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Internacional 1–0 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Internacional vs Bahia?
Internacional vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Beira-Rio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
