San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
San Jose Earthquakes or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: San Jose Earthquakes to win @ 1.71 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Jose Earthquakes to win ✓63% · @1.71
Double chanceSan Jose Earthquakes or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City preview and prediction
The match
San Jose Earthquakes host Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 04:30 (WAT) at PayPal Park. San Jose Earthquakes are 4th with 52 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Sporting Kansas City sit 15th on 26 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.3 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.1 for Sporting Kansas City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Jose Earthquakes 63%, draw 20%, Sporting Kansas City 16%.
Safer route: San Jose Earthquakes or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.45.
Value angle: San Jose Earthquakes to win at 1.71 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was San Jose Earthquakes or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Sporting Kansas City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Jose Earthquakes63%fair 1.57 · @1.71
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @4.10
Sporting Kansas City16%fair 6.22 · @4.10
3.35Expected goals
2.27San Jose Earthquakes xG
1.08Sporting Kansas City xG
63%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: San Jose Earthquakes 2.3 – 1.1 Sporting Kansas City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Jose Earthquakes to win✓
63%
1.57
1.71 ▲
Double chance
San Jose Earthquakes or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Half-time result
San Jose Earthquakes ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Jose Earthquakes / FT San Jose Earthquakes✓
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
San Jose Earthquakes
No recent results on record.
Sporting Kansas City
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Jose Earthquakes and Sporting Kansas City.
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
Our pick is San Jose Earthquakes or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
On our numbers San Jose Earthquakes have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sporting Kansas City 16%.
How many goals will there be in San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
Our predicted score is San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Sporting Kansas City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 04:30 (West Africa Time) at PayPal Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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