Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Philadelphia Union or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Philadelphia Union to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPhiladelphia Union to win ✗59% · @1.90
Double chancePhiladelphia Union or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.67
Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees Philadelphia Union take on San Jose Earthquakes on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Subaru Park. Philadelphia Union are 6th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th on 52 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Philadelphia Union's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Defence Force 7–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 4.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Philadelphia Union and 0.8 for San Jose Earthquakes. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Philadelphia Union 59%, draw 25%, San Jose Earthquakes 16%.
Safer route: Philadelphia Union or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Philadelphia Union to win at 1.90 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Philadelphia Union or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Philadelphia Union 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Philadelphia Union59%fair 1.70 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.65
San Jose Earthquakes16%fair 6.09 · @3.70
2.61Expected goals
1.78Philadelphia Union xG
0.83San Jose Earthquakes xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 1.8 – 0.8 San Jose Earthquakes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Philadelphia Union to win✗
59%
1.70
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw✗
84%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.48
Half-time result
Philadelphia Union ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.67
–
Form
Philadelphia Union – last 3
WLW
27 Feb
vs Defence Force
7–0
W
22 Feb
@ DC United
0–1
L
19 Feb
@ Defence Force
5–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
San Jose Earthquakes – last 2
WW
1 Mar
vs Atlanta United FC
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sporting Kansas City
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philadelphia Union and San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our pick is Philadelphia Union or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Jose Earthquakes 16%.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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