Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: New York City FC to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPhiladelphia Union to win44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.84
Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees Philadelphia Union take on New York City FC on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Subaru Park. Philadelphia Union are 6th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while New York City FC sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Philadelphia Union's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Defence Force 7–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 4.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Philadelphia Union and 0.9 for New York City FC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Philadelphia Union 44%, draw 22%, New York City FC 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Value angle: New York City FC to win at 3.50 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Philadelphia Union44%fair 2.26 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
New York City FC34%fair 2.97 · @3.50
2.03Expected goals
1.12Philadelphia Union xG
0.92New York City FC xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 1.1 – 0.9 New York City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Philadelphia Union to win
44%
2.26
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
15%
6.84
–
Form
Philadelphia Union – last 3
WLW
27 Feb
vs Defence Force
7–0
W
22 Feb
@ DC United
0–1
L
19 Feb
@ Defence Force
5–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
New York City FC – last 1
D
23 Feb
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philadelphia Union and New York City FC.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New York City FC 34%.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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