Value bet: Atlanta United FC to win @ 3.60 – our chance 37% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Jose Earthquakes to win ✓41% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.82
San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC preview and prediction
The match
San Jose Earthquakes host Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at PayPal Park. San Jose Earthquakes are 4th with 52 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Atlanta United FC sit 13th on 33 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.3 for Atlanta United FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Jose Earthquakes 41%, draw 23%, Atlanta United FC 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Atlanta United FC to win at 3.60 – 37% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Atlanta United FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Jose Earthquakes41%fair 2.46 · @1.97
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.55
Atlanta United FC37%fair 2.72 · @3.60
2.72Expected goals
1.40San Jose Earthquakes xG
1.32Atlanta United FC xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: San Jose Earthquakes 1.4 – 1.3 Atlanta United FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Jose Earthquakes to win✓
41%
2.46
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.48
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Jose Earthquakes / FT San Jose Earthquakes✓
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.82
–
Form
San Jose Earthquakes – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Sporting Kansas City
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atlanta United FC
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Jose Earthquakes and Atlanta United FC.
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
On our numbers San Jose Earthquakes have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atlanta United FC 37%.
How many goals will there be in San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
Our predicted score is San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Atlanta United FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at PayPal Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Columbus Crew2
Nashville SC0
Toronto FC0
Charlotte0
DC United0
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC