Uruguay vs Spain prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Uruguay 0.8 – 1.7 Spain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Spain shade it despite being away from home – 59% to win, against 19% for Uruguay.
Uruguay have taken 4 points from their last 4 matches (0W 4D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Spain have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. Spain come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (0.8 for Uruguay, 1.7 for Spain). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.30. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.05 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spain to win ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Double chance | Spain or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.87 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Spain / FT Spain ✓ | 36% | 2.81 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 14% | 6.98 | – |
Form
Uruguay – last 4
| 21 Jun | vs Cape Verde Islands | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Jun | @ Saudi Arabia | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Algeria | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ England | 1–1 | D |
Spain – last 6
| 21 Jun | vs Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | W |
| 15 Jun | vs Cape Verde Islands | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Jun | @ Peru | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Jun | vs Iraq | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | vs Egypt | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | vs Serbia | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Uruguay and Spain.
More World Cup predictions
Cape Verde Islands0
Saudi Arabia0
Egypt1
Iran1
New Zealand1
Belgium5
Croatia2
Ghana1
Panama0
England2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Uruguay vs Spain?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?
On our numbers Uruguay have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Spain 59%.
How many goals will there be in Uruguay vs Spain?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Uruguay vs Spain?
Uruguay vs Spain (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.