Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Siero to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSiero to win ✗62% · @1.91
Double chanceSiero or draw ✗86% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.22
Siero vs San Martín preview and prediction
The match
San Martín travel to Estadio El Bayu in the Tercera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 22 March (17:30 WAT) to face Siero. Siero are 11th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while San Martín sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Siero's last 4: LDLD Most recently they lost to Covadonga 0–5 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
San Martín's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Gijón Industrial 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
San Martín arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Siero and 0.7 for San Martín. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 41%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Siero 62%, draw 24%, San Martín 14%.
Safer route: Siero or draw (86%) at 1.30.
Value angle: Siero to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Siero or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Siero 1–0 San Martín. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Siero62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
San Martín14%fair 7.24 · @3.60
2.35Expected goals
1.69Siero xG
0.66San Martín xG
41%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Siero 1.7 – 0.7 San Martín expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Siero to win✗
62%
1.62
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Siero or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Siero / FT Siero✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.22
–
Form
Siero – last 4
LDLD
15 Mar
@ Covadonga
0–5
L
8 Mar
vs Avilés Stadium
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Llanera
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Llanes
2–2
D
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Martín – last 3
LLW
8 Mar
@ Gijón Industrial
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Praviano
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Tuilla
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Siero and San Martín.
Our pick is Siero or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Siero vs San Martín?
On our numbers Siero have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and San Martín 14%.
How many goals will there be in Siero vs San Martín?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Siero vs San Martín?
Our predicted score is Siero 1–0 San Martín, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Siero vs San Martín?
Siero vs San Martín (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Bayu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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