Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCovadonga to win ✗57% · @1.80
Double chanceCovadonga or draw ✗81% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.83
Caudal vs Covadonga preview and prediction
The match
Caudal host Covadonga in the Tercera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña. Caudal are 5th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Covadonga sit 1st on 23 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Caudal's last 4: WLWL Most recently they beat Avilés Stadium 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Covadonga's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Siero 5–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Covadonga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.9 for Caudal and 1.7 for Covadonga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 46%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caudal 19%, draw 24%, Covadonga 57%.
Safer route: Covadonga or draw (81%) at 1.28.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Covadonga or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caudal 0–1 Covadonga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caudal19%fair 5.24 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.50
Covadonga57%fair 1.76 · @1.80
2.60Expected goals
0.88Caudal xG
1.71Covadonga xG
46%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Caudal 0.9 – 1.7 Covadonga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Covadonga to win✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Double chance
Covadonga or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Covadonga / FT Covadonga✗
35%
2.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.83
–
Form
Caudal – last 4
WLWL
15 Mar
@ Avilés Stadium
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Llanera
0–3
L
1 Mar
@ Real Titánico
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sporting Gijón II
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Covadonga – last 5
WLWWD
15 Mar
vs Siero
5–0
W
8 Mar
@ Navarro
1–3
L
1 Mar
vs Gijón Industrial
6–0
W
22 Feb
@ Praviano
3–1
W
15 Feb
vs Lenense
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caudal and Covadonga.
Our pick is Covadonga or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Caudal vs Covadonga?
On our numbers Caudal have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Covadonga 57%.
How many goals will there be in Caudal vs Covadonga?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caudal vs Covadonga?
Our predicted score is Caudal 0–1 Covadonga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Caudal vs Covadonga?
Caudal vs Covadonga (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Llanera1