Value bet: Pontedera to win @ 3.24 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLivorno to win ✓44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.69
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.52
Pontedera vs Livorno preview and prediction
The match
Livorno travel to Stadio Ettore Mannucci in the Serie C Girone B on Sunday 26 April (13:30 WAT) to face Pontedera.
Form guide
Pontedera's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Athletic Carpi 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Livorno's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Gubbio 3–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Livorno arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Pontedera and 1.4 for Livorno. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Pontedera to win at 3.24 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Pontedera 1–1 Livorno. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pontedera35%fair 2.88 · @3.24
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.28
Livorno44%fair 2.26 · @2.00
2.59Expected goals
1.19Pontedera xG
1.40Livorno xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Pontedera 1.2 – 1.4 Livorno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livorno to win✓
44%
2.26
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.24
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.69
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livorno / FT Livorno✓
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.52
–
Form
Pontedera – last 6
LDLLDL
3 Apr
@ Athletic Carpi
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Bra
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Perugia
1–2
L
4 Mar
vs Juventus U23
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Vis Pesaro
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Ascoli
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Livorno – last 5
WDLWL
3 Apr
vs Gubbio
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Forli
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Perugia
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Pineto
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Pianese
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontedera and Livorno.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Pontedera vs Livorno?
On our numbers Pontedera have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Livorno 44%.
How many goals will there be in Pontedera vs Livorno?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontedera vs Livorno?
Our predicted score is Pontedera 1–1 Livorno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Pontedera vs Livorno?
Pontedera vs Livorno (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ettore Mannucci.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Juventus U232
Bra2
Athletic Carpi3
Ascoli0
Arezzo3
Ternana1