Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLivorno to win ✗42% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.64
Livorno vs Perugia preview and prediction
The match
Livorno host Perugia in the Serie C Girone B on Wednesday 4 March, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT) at Stadio Armando Picchi. Livorno are 8th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Perugia sit 12th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Livorno and 1.2 for Perugia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Livorno 42%, draw 24%, Perugia 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.83 – 58% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Livorno 1–1 Perugia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Livorno42%fair 2.35 · @2.33
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Perugia33%fair 3.02 · @2.85
2.63Expected goals
1.44Livorno xG
1.19Perugia xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Livorno 1.4 – 1.2 Perugia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Livorno
Perugia
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average
+9%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.70
1.35
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livorno to win✗
42%
2.35
2.33
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livorno / FT Livorno✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.64
–
Form
Livorno – last 2
WL
21 Feb
vs Pineto
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Pianese
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Perugia – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Athletic Carpi
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livorno and Perugia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Livorno vs Perugia?
On our numbers Livorno have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Perugia 33%.
How many goals will there be in Livorno vs Perugia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livorno vs Perugia?
Our predicted score is Livorno 1–1 Perugia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Livorno vs Perugia?
Livorno vs Perugia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Armando Picchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Athletic Carpi1
Pontedera0
Juventus U231
Bra1
Arezzo1
Ternana2
Ascoli1