Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Athletic Carpi to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGubbio to win ✓39% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.20
Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Gubbio take on Athletic Carpi on Wednesday 4 March, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti.
Form guide
Gubbio's last 3: WLD Most recently they beat Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Gubbio and 1.2 for Athletic Carpi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Athletic Carpi to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Gubbio 1–1 Athletic Carpi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gubbio39%fair 2.58 · @2.10
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.00
Athletic Carpi33%fair 2.99 · @3.40
2.20Expected goals
0.98Gubbio xG
1.22Athletic Carpi xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Gubbio 1.0 – 1.2 Athletic Carpi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Gubbio
Athletic Carpi
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average
-34%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
+18%
+1%
Our expected goals here
0.90
1.55
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gubbio to win✓
39%
2.58
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Athletic Carpi / FT Athletic Carpi✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.20
–
Form
Gubbio – last 3
WLD
1 Mar
@ Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Arezzo
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Pontedera
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Athletic Carpi – last 2
WD
22 Feb
vs Bra
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Perugia
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gubbio and Athletic Carpi.
What is the prediction for Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?
On our numbers Gubbio have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Athletic Carpi 33%.
How many goals will there be in Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?
Our predicted score is Gubbio 1–1 Athletic Carpi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?
Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pontedera0
Juventus U231
Bra1
Arezzo1
Ternana2
Ascoli1