Value bet: Orleans to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOrleans to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceOrleans or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.00
Orleans vs Concarneau preview and prediction
The match
Orleans host Concarneau in the National 1 on Friday 10 April, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Stade de la Source. Orleans are 14th with 11 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Concarneau sit 6th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Orleans's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Villefranche 0–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Concarneau's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Le Puy Foot 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Orleans arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Orleans and 0.7 for Concarneau. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Orleans to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Orleans 1–0 Concarneau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orleans60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.20
Concarneau14%fair 7.13 · @4.10
2.51Expected goals
1.77Orleans xG
0.75Concarneau xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Orleans 1.8 – 0.7 Concarneau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orleans to win✗
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Orleans or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Orleans ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Orleans / FT Orleans✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.00
–
Form
Orleans – last 5
DWWWD
27 Mar
vs Villefranche
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Gobelins
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Stade Briochin
3–1
W
20 Feb
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
3–0
W
13 Feb
@ Le Puy Foot
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Concarneau – last 6
LLLLDW
3 Apr
vs Le Puy Foot
0–3
L
27 Mar
@ Chateauroux
1–3
L
20 Mar
vs Valenciennes
1–2
L
13 Mar
@ Sochaux
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Dijon
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Fleury 91
4–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orleans and Concarneau.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Orleans vs Concarneau?
On our numbers Orleans have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Concarneau 14%.
How many goals will there be in Orleans vs Concarneau?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orleans vs Concarneau?
Our predicted score is Orleans 1–0 Concarneau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Orleans vs Concarneau?
Orleans vs Concarneau (National 1) kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Source.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chateauroux3
Dijon2
Sochaux2
Stade Briochin0