Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Modena to win @ 1.84 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultModena to win ✗64% · @1.84
Double chanceModena or draw ✗84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.80
Bari vs Modena preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Bari take on Modena on Monday 6 April, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio San Nicola.
Form guide
Bari's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Carrarese 0–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Modena's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Spezia 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Modena arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Bari and 1.7 for Modena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bari 16%, draw 20%, Modena 64%.
Safer route: Modena or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Modena to win at 1.84 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Modena or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Bari 0–1 Modena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bari16%fair 6.13 · @4.30
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.40
Modena64%fair 1.56 · @1.84
2.45Expected goals
0.71Bari xG
1.74Modena xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: Bari 0.7 – 1.7 Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Modena to win✗
64%
1.56
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Modena or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Modena ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Modena / FT Modena✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.80
–
Form
Bari – last 6
LLLWWD
22 Mar
vs Carrarese
0–3
L
18 Mar
@ Frosinone
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Pescara
0–4
L
4 Mar
vs Empoli
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Sampdoria
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Padova
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Modena – last 3
WLW
13 Mar
vs Spezia
3–0
W
3 Mar
@ Virtus Entella
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Juve Stabia
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Modena.
Our pick is Modena or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bari vs Modena?
On our numbers Bari have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Modena 64%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Modena?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Modena?
Our predicted score is Bari 0–1 Modena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Modena?
Bari vs Modena (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Reggiana1
Pescara3
Venezia3
Monza1
Spezia1