Newport City vs Baglan Dragons prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Newport City to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewport City to win ✗61% · @1.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.80
Newport City vs Baglan Dragons preview and prediction
The match
Baglan Dragons travel to Newport Stadium in the FAW Championship on Friday 6 March (20:30 WAT) to face Newport City. Newport City are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Baglan Dragons sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Newport City's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Carmarthen Town 4–4 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Newport City and 0.9 for Baglan Dragons. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newport City 61%, draw 19%, Baglan Dragons 21%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Newport City to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Newport City 1–0 Baglan Dragons. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newport City61%fair 1.64 · @1.62
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @3.70
Baglan Dragons21%fair 4.85 · @4.50
2.61Expected goals
1.75Newport City xG
0.86Baglan Dragons xG
48%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Newport City 1.8 – 0.9 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newport City to win✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Newport City ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newport City / FT Newport City✗
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.80
–
Form
Newport City – last 3
DWW
1 Mar
vs Carmarthen Town
4–4
D
20 Feb
vs Llantwit Major
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Afan Lido
1–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Baglan Dragons – last 2
LL
21 Feb
@ Pontypridd Town
0–2
L
17 Feb
@ Trefelin
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport City and Baglan Dragons.
What is the prediction for Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
Our pick is Newport City to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
On our numbers Newport City have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Baglan Dragons 21%.
How many goals will there be in Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
Our predicted score is Newport City 1–0 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?
Newport City vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Newport Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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